Catena Media Q3 revenue falls 29% to EUR 8.3m as group drops 2026 growth target

Catena Media has cut its 2026 outlook after publishing preliminary third-quarter revenue of EUR 8.3m, down 29 percent year on year, in a release dated 16 October. The Malta-headquartered affiliate group also expects a non-cash impairment charge of EUR 30-35m.

The company pointed to changes in search, lower operator marketing spend over the summer and its heavy reliance on cost-per-acquisition (CPA) deals.

What happened

In its announcement of preliminary, unaudited results, Catena Media put Q3 2026 revenue at EUR 8.3m, compared with EUR 11.6m in the same period of 2025. Nine-month revenue totalled EUR 30.1m, against EUR 31.0m a year earlier.

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter came in at EUR 0.7m, down from EUR 2.9m. The EUR 0.7m reversal relates to bonus accruals for the 2026 employee programme that were booked previously in the year, and is included in that figure. For the nine months, adjusted EBITDA stood at EUR 4.6m, against EUR 5.2m.

The group said it no longer expects to reach its aim of double-digit organic growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA for 2026. The company also anticipates a EUR 30-35m non-cash impairment of intangible assets in the third quarter, in line with IAS 36.

Catena Media listed several factors behind the weaker performance:

• Generative search is changing how users find brands online, which the company said has reduced new traffic across the affiliate industry.
• Its own traditional search rankings declined, which it attributed to AI-assisted personalised search patterns and to search engines continuing to promote lower-relevancy content.
• Some operators cut their marketing budgets during the customary seasonal summer lull.

The company added that over 90 percent of its new customers come through CPA deals, which leaves it with little recurring revenue to cushion such pressures.

Manuel Stan, CEO, said: "This was a weak quarter and our results reflect that." He described the search landscape as undergoing a rapid and fundamental shift, and said a predominantly CPA-based business feels the effects immediately and in full.

Stan said the results reinforce the strategy set out in the second quarter: reducing dependence on search by diversifying revenue, including through the newly announced TraffiqX project and new verticals such as prediction markets, and by investing in customer loyalty programmes.

Why it matters

Operators that buy traffic from Catena Media and other search-led affiliates could need to check how much of their new-customer volume depends on organic search rankings, and whether their summer budget cuts fed into partner performance. Catena Media itself named reduced operator marketing budgets as one of the pressures on the quarter.

Affiliates running CPA-weighted models could review how exposed their revenue is to ranking changes. Catena Media said that with more than 90 percent of new customers acquired under CPA deals, search shifts reach its results immediately and in full. Recurring revenue could cushion such swings, and the company says it is diversifying its revenue streams.

The company's own account is that lower search traffic is affecting the affiliate industry as a whole, not only its own sites. That is Catena Media's assessment, and other affiliates' results will show how far it holds.

The release names prediction markets as a new vertical but gives no revenue figures for it.

What's next

Catena Media will publish its Q3 2026 interim report at 17:35 CET on 10 November, with a webcast scheduled for 18:00 CET. The figures released on 16 October are preliminary and unaudited.

Stan said the company plans to launch TraffiqX in the first quarter of 2027.