Macquarie sees DraftKings Predictions volume at $15bn in 2027

Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon has estimated that DraftKings Predictions could generate $15 billion of consumer, or taker, volume in 2027, according to a client report covered by Casino.org. The estimate rests on roughly $842 million of volume the business recorded in October.

The projection comes as sportsbook operators try to establish themselves in event contracts.

What happened

In the report, Beynon said DraftKings Predictions, which is not yet a year old, took part in industry-wide volume growth in October. He wrote that the figure of approximately $842 million of consumer volume "sets them up for $15 billion of consumer volume in 2027E," as quoted by Casino.org.

Taker volume, in prediction market terms, is turnover from smaller retail traders who take liquidity supplied by market makers and larger traders. In the previous month, Beynon forecast that taker volume could reach $187 billion in 2026.

App download data cited in the report points to continued retail interest in the largest prediction market operator, with some momentum behind newer entrants. Over the trailing seven days, DraftKings Predictions accounted for 12% of prediction market app downloads, compared with 11% in the preceding week. Beynon also noted that DKeX, the company's in-house exchange, is growing quickly and has net revenue margins close to those of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Beynon said trends suggest some incumbent operators are gaining a degree of traction. He added that sportsbooks remain under-monetised in the event-contract category and could take share as geographic availability widens, as more people become aware of the product, and as prediction market offerings are integrated further.

Casino.org also reported that some major sportsbook operators with prediction market products, DraftKings among them, do not offer sports event contracts in the states where they take traditional sports bets.

Why it matters

Operators and affiliates tracking event contracts could check how sportsbook-led prediction products are distributed and monetised, because the analyst's view is that integration with existing sportsbook offerings is a driver of share gains. Brands that currently treat prediction markets and sportsbooks as separate channels may need to review how they handle both in acquisition and partnership planning.

The figures also bear on investor sentiment. DraftKings has forecast an adjusted EBITDA investment of $650 million to $700 million in DraftKings Predictions, which has drawn concern from some shareholders who think the company is spending too heavily. Casino.org reported that the net revenue margin growth and Macquarie's 2027 volume estimate may be signs that the spending is validated. The estimate is an analyst projection rather than a company target, and it is likely to be tested against monthly volume data in the coming months.

Beynon described October's data as evidence that prediction markets are shifting from a single-platform phenomenon into a wider ecosystem. In his words, participation is growing among a range of players: sportsbooks, exchanges, brokers, market makers, leagues and infrastructure providers. Some experts cited by Casino.org see the October growth as a sign there is room for several credible competitors, and that traders are using more than sports derivatives. For suppliers of infrastructure, market-making and data services, a broader field of participants could mean more varied counterparties.

DraftKings has also flagged opportunity in certain non-sports event contract segments, and management has highlighted high trader engagement and attractive payback periods among prediction market clients, according to Casino.org.

What's next

The full coverage is available in the Casino.org report.