Genius Sports launches Prediction.com comparison site built on $1.2bn Legend deal

Genius Sports launched Prediction.com, a comparison site that places pricing from prediction market platforms next to live sports data. The site was built by Legend, the media and technology business Genius acquired in a $1.2bn (£750m) deal announced in February.

For affiliates and operators, it could add a data supplier with its own consumer media arm to the competition for prediction market audiences.

What happened

According to iGaming Business, Prediction.com collects pricing and market information from several prediction market operations and layers it over live sports feeds. Users can compare equivalent contracts and multi-leg positions across different exchanges, and a proprietary cross-venue engine covers multi-leg combinations.

The site also draws on Genius' official in-game data, so users can follow play-by-play action next to changing market probabilities, prices and signals.

SBC News said the platform can be expected to work like Oddschecker and reported that it currently displays data from 11 apps. They include Fanatics, FanDuel Predicts, Underdog, Novig, Polymarket and Kalshi.

Genius said the site addresses the "fragmentation" that comes from users visiting platforms one by one for pricing. Sean Conroy, Genius' EVP of rights and partnerships, commented on the launch: "As the category continues to grow, robust integrity safeguards are not simply optional; they are foundational," he said.

In terms of existing ties, iGaming Business reported that Genius signed deals with Kalshi and Polymarket in August covering real-time event data, league integrity services and streaming. Sportradar announced multi-year partnerships with both platforms in June. Genius also keeps partnerships with DraftKings and FanDuel, which both extended their NFL arrangements ahead of the new season.

Genius chief executive Mark Locke wrote that he sees prediction markets as a "net benefit" for the company. He said they create more businesses to supply, more ways to monetise the same sports activity and more competition for the customers Genius helps operators win. SBC News reported he also said that most of the demand these markets have surfaced appears new.

On investor reaction, iGaming Business said the response was largely negative. Genius shares fell 13% on 18 September and 17% over the week, closing at $5.64. The price was $6.19 when the Legend acquisition was announced in February.

SBC News reported that the Legend takeover was turbulent for Genius and was followed by a drop in its share price. Locke and others at Genius have described the market reaction as a misreading of Legend as a simple affiliate business.

Citizens analyst Jordan Bender wrote in a note dated 16 September that Genius should gain from higher spending on both traditional sports betting and prediction markets. In a later note, he said investors will be watching for evidence that Genius can use Legend to take a bigger share of the sports betting and prediction market opportunity.

Why it matters

Affiliates working on prediction market comparison or odds content may need to check how a site run by a major data supplier changes the competition for traffic and operator placements. Prediction.com is tied to Genius' official in-game data.

Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the platforms listed on the site, are also Genius data and integrity partners, according to iGaming Business. Operators and platforms could look at how pricing, placement and commercial terms are handled where a supplier also runs a comparison product.

Locke has said Legend helps operators acquire customers, so operators that buy media from Legend may want to check how prediction market content sits alongside traditional betting inventory.