Jefferies: prediction market daily volume hits record $4.13bn in October, up 55%

Average daily volume on prediction markets reached a record $4.13 billion in October, up 55%, according to a Jefferies report to clients by analyst Daniel Fannon. The findings were reported by Casino.org.

Sports contracts again drove most of the activity, which matters for operators and affiliates tracking where sports-related demand is moving.

What happened

Fannon reported that daily turnover on yes/no exchanges rose 55% in October to $4.13 billion. Open interest also hit a record, up 45% from the previous month, at $3.27 billion. Casino.org said the increase was likely due to the ramp-up of college football and the NFL.

Casino.org said much of the growth came from the largest platform, while Polymarket US and Rothera were among the others showing signs of vibrancy.

On individual platforms, Fannon said:

• Polymarket had $655M in average daily volume, up 50% month-over-month and 395% year-over-year, with a 17% share of the platforms Jefferies tracks. That share was flat on the previous month.
• Other tracked platforms had $309M in average daily volume, up 56% month-over-month and 710% year-over-year, with a share of about 7%.
• Rothera, a June launch, recorded total average daily volume of $49M, a 55% rise month-over-month. That represented 1.2% of industry volume, against 1.5% in September.

Rothera is a joint venture between Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group.

Sports average daily volume grew 55% month-over-month to $2,978M, according to Fannon. Non-sports average daily volume also rose 55% to $843M. Sports held a 78% share of average daily volume, unchanged from the previous month. Its share of total open interest rose to 83% from 73% in September.

Fannon also highlighted that use of combos, the prediction market term for parlays, rises at weekends. He said this is consistent with combos leaning towards NFL and college football activity. He added that DKeX's higher combo penetration on weekdays and at weekends alike suggests a "structurally more sports- and combo-heavy product mix".

Casino.org attributed the non-sports growth to likely interest in political event contracts. It said near-term non-sports growth is likely to depend on categories such as cryptocurrency and financial derivatives, among others.

Why it matters

Operators and affiliates covering sports will need to check how much of their audience and product comparison work now overlaps with sports event contracts, which Jefferies puts at 78% of average daily volume. Combo-heavy usage at weekends suggests the products compete for similar NFL and college football demand as traditional sportsbooks.

The shift in open interest towards sports, from 73% to 83% of the total, is likely to matter for operators that run or plan exchange-style products. Casino.org described DraftKings' DKeX as one of the beneficiaries of the combo trend.

Market share figures also point to a concentrated field. Polymarket's 17% share was flat month-over-month, while Rothera's share slipped from 1.5% to 1.2% even as its volume rose. Newer entrants could therefore find that matching overall market growth does not by itself lift their share.

The figures come from a single analyst's tracking of selected platforms, so comparisons with other data sets may differ.