Sportradar US revenue up 47% in Q3 as prediction markets add first gains

Sportradar said on October 30 that prediction markets contributed positively to its results for the first time in the third quarter of 2026, as US revenue growth reached 47%. Quarterly group revenue came to €362.5 million, a 24% rise on the prior year, and the company kept its full-year outlook unchanged.

The company did not say how much of its US revenue came from prediction markets. Management expects a larger contribution in 2027 but declined to put a number on it.

What happened

CEO Carsten Koerl said the third quarter was the first in which prediction markets had a positive effect on US growth. He was responding to a question from Bank of America analyst Sean Kelly on the company's earnings call.

Key figures reported for the quarter:

Metric	Q3 2026
Revenue	€362.5 million, up 24%
US revenue	€98 million, up 47%
US share of total revenue	27%, against 23% a year earlier
Adjusted EBITDA	€102.2 million, up 21%
Adjusted EBITDA margin	28.2%, against 29.0%
Profit for the period	€27 million, up 20%
Sports-rights expenses	€111.7 million, up 54%

US growth accelerated from approximately 10% in the first half. Marketing & Media Services revenue grew 15%, versus roughly 3% in the first half, based on calculations from the company's reported results, as Gambling Insider reported. Koerl pointed to IMG Arena content as a meaningful contributor. CFO Craig Felenstein said that during the World Cup, Managed Trading Services turnover rose by about $2.5 billion.

Partnerships. Koerl described a network that includes Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig as exchange partners, a first broker agreement with Robinhood, and around 10 market-maker agreements. Polymarket's relationship with Sportradar now spans more than 20 sports leagues and competitions. Kalshi draws on Sportradar's data, integrity, fan-engagement and customer-acquisition products.

The expansion follows a second-quarter delay, when management said that finalising prediction-market agreements had taken more time than anticipated. That delay postponed revenue and fed into a cut to full-year guidance.

Market makers. Koerl put the wider pool at over 300 firms, depending on which exchanges are counted, and said they want faster data for trading on sports events. He said Sportradar is building a prediction-market feed on real-time data, including an NBA model designed to predict events seconds ahead.

Cost base. The company said prediction markets need minimal incremental investment because they run on the same rights, technology and teams as its betting business. Felenstein said the agreements pair fixed fees with variable payments linked to market growth, which makes an annualised revenue estimate difficult. He said a smaller part of the higher sports-rights costs related to prediction-market opportunities.

Cash and capital. Year-to-date free cash flow grew 18% to €177 million, and free cash flow conversion stood at 72%. In Q3 the company bought back $157 million of its shares. Its 2026 purchases through 30 October total $408 million, or 28 million shares, and total buybacks since the programme began stand at $519 million, or 34 million shares.

Sportradar has also agreed a $170 million sale of Atrium Sports to Teamworks Innovations.

Guidance. At current exchange rates, the 2026 outlook stays at €1.518 billion to €1.533 billion for revenue and €360 million to €368 million for adjusted EBITDA. It excludes the expected Atrium Sports sale.

Why it matters

Affiliates and media buyers working with US prediction-market platforms should check how heavily those platforms are buying acquisition services, because Koerl said competition among prediction-market operators to win and engage customers is lifting demand for Sportradar's marketing services. Marketing & Media Services growth of 15%, against roughly 3% in the first half, is consistent with that.

For operators and suppliers, the results point to prediction markets being treated as a complement to sports betting rather than a replacement. Koerl described the two as complementary. According to Felenstein, traditional online sports betting is expanding more slowly than when Sportradar set its earlier targets, as prediction markets take over part of the growth that had been expected.

Suppliers selling data into the sector could find that faster feeds become a competitive point. Koerl cited speed advantages in official data, such as tennis line calls, as a draw for market makers. Operators that compete with exchanges for the same audiences are likely to see more of those firms using official data.

The lack of a disclosed prediction-market revenue figure limits how far the quarter can be read as a measure of the segment's size. Earlier, in the second quarter, Koerl had said the segment might bring in tens of millions of euros in 2026 and significantly more in 2027, and Felenstein repeated that significant growth is expected next year.

What's next

Sportradar expects the Atrium Sports sale to Teamworks Innovations to close in Q4, subject to customary closing conditions. Sportradar said its guidance will exclude the sale until it completes.