Genius Sports raises 2026 guidance again after Q3 revenue rises 62.3% to $269.9m

Genius Sports has lifted its full-year 2026 guidance for the third quarter running after reporting revenue of $269.9m for the three months to 30 September, an increase of 62.3%. The company also recorded its first quarterly operating profit, according to AffPapa.

For operators and affiliates buying data, integrity and marketing services from the supplier, the figures point to a vendor with growing cash generation and an expanding prediction-market business.

What happened

Genius Sports reported operating profit of $10.4m for the quarter, compared with an operating loss of $25.6m a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA rose 156.4% to $87.1m, and the net loss narrowed to $15.7m from $28.8m. Free cash flow reached $53.6m, against $3.3m in the same period of 2025.

The two main revenue lines both grew:

• Betting revenue rose 33% to $153m. AffPapa attributed the increase to price rises on contract renewals and new services sold to existing customers.
• Media revenue increased 126% to $116.9m, which the report largely ascribes to the purchase of Legend in May.

Also during the quarter, Genius agreed partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi under which it will provide content, integrity services and marketing solutions. It also introduced Prediction.com, a platform that lets users compare probabilities and event contracts across prediction markets.

CEO Mark Locke said the quarter's free cash flow showed how much cash the combined business can generate, according to the report. He also said the company is well positioned for sustained growth, profitability and free cash flow.

The company now expects 2026 revenue of $1.02bn to $1.04bn, up from a previous range of $1.01bn to $1.03bn. Its adjusted EBITDA guidance is $287m to $297m, compared with $285m to $295m before. Genius aims to end the year with a cash balance of around $260m.

Why it matters

Operators that renew Genius contracts should check their pricing terms. The company attributed part of its betting revenue growth to price increases on renewals and to additional services for existing customers, so renewal negotiations could involve higher costs or wider bundles.

Affiliates and media buyers who work with the supplier's media products may also need to assess how the Legend acquisition changes the offering. Media revenue more than doubled, largely because of that deal, which suggests the media arm is now a much larger part of the business.

The Polymarket and Kalshi partnerships could signal demand from prediction-market operators for content, integrity and marketing services, and operators comparing vendors could weigh the financial position of each.

The reported cash flow and operating profit could also give Genius more room to keep investing in operator services.

What's next

Genius has set 2026 guidance at $1.02bn to $1.04bn in revenue and $287m to $297m in adjusted EBITDA, and its year-end cash balance goal is around $260m.