Flutter cuts 2026 guidance again as FanDuel adjusted EBITDA falls 94% to $3m

Flutter Entertainment cut its 2026 guidance for the third consecutive quarter on 4 November, as FanDuel's US adjusted EBITDA fell 94% to $3m in the third quarter. Flutter also paused its share repurchase programme. The company expects US promotional spend to stay at similar levels through 2027.

The results were the first under Dan Taylor, who took over as chief executive from Peter Jackson on 1 October, according to Gambling Insider.

What happened

Flutter's Q3 2026 earnings release put group revenue at $3.874 billion, up 2%, and adjusted EBITDA at $360m, down 25%. The adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 9.3% from 12.6%. The net loss widened by 46% to $1,148m.

In the US, revenue rose 6% to $1,455m, with sportsbook revenue up 4% and iGaming up 8%. Handle grew 13%. Adjusted EBITDA dropped to $3m, down 94% year on year. Flutter said the fall followed investment in its prediction market offering and its Alberta launch. Sales and marketing expenses in the US rose 16% to $357m.

Flutter's promotional spend as a share of handle increased by 60 basis points, reaching 6.0%. Flutter said it expects promotional spend to stay at similar levels in the fourth quarter and through 2027, leaving net revenue margin broadly flat year on year. Sports results were about $38m unfavourable to US revenue in the quarter. Gambling Insider reported that FanDuel's share of sportsbook gross gaming revenue was 36%, down from 39% in the second quarter.

Gambling Insider reported that US EBITDA guidance fell $45m to $715m.

In International, adjusted EBITDA fell 14% to $435m. Flutter said the 280 basis-point margin decline, to 18.0%, was driven chiefly by UK remote gaming duty rising from 21% to 40%, with savings from tax mitigation offsetting part of it. HMRC's duty changes notice set the 40% rate for accounting periods beginning on or after 1 April 2026. It also provides for a 25% rate on most remote betting from 1 April 2027.

Group leverage rose to 4.6x from 3.7x at 31 December 2025.

FanDuel Predicts had 66,000 average monthly players and $119m of volume in the quarter. Flutter said revenue was not material. Flutter expects to keep investing in prediction markets through 2027, at a similar or higher level. According to Gambling Insider, Taylor said September media spending across the betting category was more than 60% higher than a year earlier.

Why it matters

Affiliates and operators competing in US sportsbook acquisition could face higher customer-acquisition costs for longer. Flutter has said it expects marketing intensity in 2027 to stay close to this year's levels. Rate cards, CPA negotiations and bonus budgets are likely to be tested against that backdrop.

The UK duty increase is another driver for operators with British exposure. Flutter's International margin decline shows how the 40% remote gaming duty is flowing through to results. Operators with UK iGaming revenue could face similar margin pressure and may need to revisit cost bases and affiliate payout structures. HMRC's 25% remote betting rate from 1 April 2027 would add a further cost for sportsbook operators.

Flutter's decision to pause buybacks and prioritise deleveraging could point to tighter capital allocation.

What's next

Taylor said he will set out more of his strategy alongside fourth-quarter results in February.